Downscaled Climate Modeling System with Multi-Scenario Projections

Solution Overview

The Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality developed a comprehensive climate modeling approach that integrated downscaled global climate models with thirty years of city-specific meteorological data from stations operated by the General Directorate of Meteorology (MGM).[3][4][5] This data-driven methodology supported the municipality's commitment to achieving carbon neutrality and climate resilience by 2050 in alignment with the Paris Agreement.[2] The technical framework enabled detailed climate projections across multiple emissions scenarios to inform long-term adaptation planning.

Technical Components

The modeling system utilized downscaled global climate models combined with national data inputs and outputs from MGM-operated meteorological stations, providing three decades of localized climate information for Istanbul.[1][3][6] This approach incorporated four distinct climate scenarios—RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5—as defined in the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report published in 2013.[1] In 2017, the MGM compared results from three different global climate models (HadGEM2-ES, MPIESMMR, and GFDL-ESM2M) to generate forecasts for regional climate changes in Türkiye according to RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 covering the period from 2016 to 2099.[1] The technical infrastructure integrated historical meteorological observations with advanced climate modeling outputs to produce city-specific projections.

Climate Adaptation Relevance

The climate modeling revealed that across all scenarios, İstanbul is expected to experience higher average temperatures between 1 and 4.5°C per year under RCP 8.5, with a faster temperature increase projected for summer months compared to winter.[1] These projections directly informed the municipality's strategic goal of transforming Istanbul into a carbon-neutral and climate-resilient city by 2050.[2]

Sources

! AI-generated case study

This case study was composed by an experimental deep research AI agent, initialized with a quote from Istanbul's climate resilience plan.

CCAP used downscaled global climate models and national data inputs and outputs from stations operated by the General Directorate of Meteorology (MGM) provided thirty years of city-specific climate data. This modeling approach considered possible future climate hazards according to four climate scenarios, namely RCP 2,6, RCP 4,5, RCP 6,0 and RCP 8,5, as defined in the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report published in 2013.

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