Resilience Scanner

Llobregat River Turbidity Prediction Model for Water Supply

Solution Overview

A turbidity model was developed to analyse the water quality of Llobregat river in case of rainfall events.[1][3][4] This analytical system addresses a critical vulnerability in Barcelona's water supply infrastructure, where water turbidity produced by heavy rainfall and soil erosions could produce the closure of the abstraction facility of Water Treatment Plants with decrease of the availability of water resources.[1] The model enables water managers to anticipate and respond to quality degradation events that threaten the city's primary water source.

Technical Components

The turbidity model analyzes water quality parameters in the Llobregat river specifically during rainfall events.[5][6][7] Research underlying the model found that high flow, as an indicator of heavy rainfall events, was significantly associated with an increase of turbidity in raw water.[2] The analytical framework evaluates critical turbidity thresholds that trigger operational decisions at water treatment facilities. The model incorporates ensemble climate change scenarios including RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections extending to the 2071-2100 period to assess future turbidity event frequencies.[1]

Climate Adaptation Relevance

This approach directly addresses extreme precipitation hazards and their cascading impacts on water resource availability. The main source of water for Barcelona is the Llobregat river, which is highly regulated and overexploited.[3] Climate change is expected to reduce the availability of water in the Llobregat river, increasing Barcelona's vulnerability to droughts.[3]

Benefits and Impacts

The turbidity model provides quantitative projections for future planning scenarios under different climate pathways. For the most probable planning scenario, there is a decrease of 1% of average events with critical turbidity to account for ensemble CC scenario RCP8.5 and period 2071-2100.[1] Conversely, for the most severe planning scenario, there is an increase of 2% of average events with critical turbidity to account for ensemble CC scenario RCP4.5 and period 2071-2100.[1] These projections enable water treatment plant operators to anticipate closure events and develop contingency protocols for maintaining water supply continuity during heavy rainfall periods.

[1]: [Source 1] [2]: [Source 2] [3]: [Source 3] [4]: [Source 4] [5]: [Source 5] [6]: [Source 6] [7]: [Source 7]

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