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Tsunami Risk Assessment and Disaster Management Strategy

Solution Overview

A tsunami simulation conducted by 100RC Platform Partner Swiss Re confirms that Byblos' Old Port is at risk from coastal flooding.[1][2][3] This assessment forms the foundation for Action 37, which involves developing a disaster risk reduction and management strategy that identifies the risks facing the city and outlines a plan for mitigating these risks and responding to emergencies.[1] Byblos currently lacks a comprehensive disaster risk reduction and management strategy, despite the city's location in a seismically active zone that makes it vulnerable to earthquakes and tsunamis.[1]

Technical Components

The tsunami simulation conducted by Swiss Re generated two different tsunami scenarios based on earthquakes in the region.[2] Based on these scenarios, it is predicted that the largest tsunami could create a 6 meter wave in the port area with a return period of around 2,000 years, while a smaller tsunami of 1-3 meters may re-occur every 300-1,000 years.[2] The modeling approach incorporated regional seismic data to assess coastal flooding vulnerability at the Old Port location.[1][2][3]

Climate Adaptation Relevance

The simulation addresses multiple climate hazards facing Byblos, as the city's coastal location makes it vulnerable to sea-level rise and other climate-related risks.[1] The areas at risk of tsunami will increase as global mean sea level rises, with estimates for 2100 ranging from approximately 20 cm to nearly 1 m according to the IPCC (2013).[4] In Lebanon, tsunami hazard is classified as medium, meaning there is more than a 10% chance of a potentially-damaging tsunami occurring in the next 50 years.[4]

[1]: Source 1 [2]: Source 2 [3]: Source 3 [4]: Source 4

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