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Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment and Early Warning System

Solution Overview

Tbilisi City Hall planned to develop an integrated Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment and Early Warning System that would incorporate high-resolution models for weather and hydrological forecasting.[3] This approach addresses a critical gap identified by the National Environmental Agency of Georgia, which recognized the lack of high-resolution weather forecast data as a significant challenge for the Georgia Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System (FEWS).[1] The development of such high-resolution forecasting capabilities was established as a future priority for strengthening the country's climate risk management framework.[1]

Technical Components

The technical infrastructure for enhanced forecasting capabilities in Georgia includes multiple integrated systems and hardware investments. A high-performance computer (HPC) was purchased for the National Environment Agency and has been operating since 2021 to enable quality data processing and storage.[7] Georgia deployed 2 meteorological radars in western and eastern parts of the country with support from the state and international partners.[8] By the end of 2023, approximately 300 meteorological stations were installed throughout Georgia to significantly improve the quality of weather forecasts and forecasting of expected natural disasters.[8] The monitoring network modernization included 79 new hydrometeorological stations that were installed, with 77 more planned, significantly boosting data accuracy.[6] A forecasting platform using Delft-FEWS across 11 selected river basins was established.[7] Additionally, a flood, landslide, and avalanche forecasting database assessment was developed, along with drought monitoring and forecasting platforms.[7] A disaster risk information system and a flood forecasting platform were in testing as of the reporting period.[6] The system builds upon the most complete and integrated almost real-time early warning system for floods and flashfloods that was recently developed and operationalized for the Rioni River Basin, developed under the UNDP project financed by the Adaptation Fund.[4]

Implementation Details

The Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment and Early Warning System project was being implemented by the National Environment Agency at the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Agriculture with Italy-Georgia Bilateral funding, in partnership with Tbilisi City Hall.[3] The broader national scaling-up effort received US$27 million in GCF funding, with the cornerstone initiative focusing on high-tech monitoring and data processing.[6] The FP068 Multi-Hazard Early Warning System project in Georgia received total GCF financing of USD 27,053,598 in grants, approved on 01 March 2018, with 76% disbursed as of the reporting period.[5] Co-financing totaled US$38,239,024 from the Government of Georgia and US$5,000,000 from the Swiss Government.[4] UNDP and the Government of Georgia, with funding from the Green Climate Fund, Swiss and Swedish governments, were implementing a 7-year programme dedicated to reducing the risk of climate-driven disasters in Georgia with an overall budget of US$74 million.[7] The GCF-financed project scaled up pilot activities and achievements of the UNDP project "Developing Climate Resilient Flood and Flash Flood Management Practices to Protect Vulnerable Communities of Georgia" (Rioni project) financed by the Adaptation Fund from 2012-2017.[4] The GCF project scaled up prototypes piloted by the Rioni project, including hazard mapping, floodplain modelling, floodplain zoning and early warning systems, to include other river basins and regions of Georgia and to encompass a broader range of key climate-induced hazards.[4]

To enhance forecasting capabilities, Georgia became a member of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in 2021 to improve forecasting capabilities.[7][6] A Co-operation Agreement between ECMWF and Georgia came into force on 1 December 2021.[2] International organisations such as the UN Development Programme (UNDP), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the World Bank supported Georgia to become an ECMWF Co-operating State.[2] UNDP Georgia provided technical expertise and funding needed to cover the costs of Georgia being an ECMWF Co-operating State, with support drawing on broader assistance funded by the Green Climate Fund and the governments of Switzerland, Sweden and Georgia.[2] Georgia joined the Boundary Conditions and SAPP Optional Programmes as part of the ECMWF Co-operation Agreement.[2] In 2025, the programme helped establish a partnership between the National Environment Agency and the European Meteorological Network EUMETNET to enhance forecasting, climate services, and early-warning systems.[7] Co-operation Agreements offer full access to ECMWF real-time products, archive data and software tools, as well as access to ECMWF training facilities.[2]

Implementation challenges included outdated capabilities prior to the modernization efforts. According to a World Bank report, the Department of Hydrometeorology was unable to make the best use of weather forecasts available in digital form from leading centers around the world due to outdated hardware and software, and did not have access to sufficient observations and instruments needed to make forecasts for less than six hours ahead.[9] Despite two newly installed radar systems, precise weather forecasting remained a challenge in a mountainous country hit by several major natural disasters, including the Tbilisi flood of 2015 that killed at least 19 and the deaths of 33 at the popular Shovi resort in 2023.[9] According to information UNDP Tbilisi office shared, only 10 municipalities in Georgia out of 69 had Emergency Management Actions Plans in one form or another, with few approved, some works in progress, and some not started.[9]

Benefits and Impacts

The multi-hazard early warning system is an essential element of the country's climate risk management framework and will serve 1.7 million Georgians currently at risk from climate-induced hazards.[4] The Georgia Multi-Hazard Early Warning System project was expected to benefit 1,710,000 direct beneficiaries and 2,000,000 indirect beneficiaries.[5] The project will directly benefit up to 1.7 million people, representing 40% of the population currently at risk from hydrometeorological hazards.[4] A unified methodology for hazard assessment was created, producing detailed maps for seven major river basins.[6] The project will significantly improve the National Environment Agency's capacities to meet World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standards.[4] Levan Davitashvili, Minister of Environmental Protection and Agriculture of Georgia, stated that becoming a Co-operating State of ECMWF would facilitate the enhancement of Georgia's numerical weather prediction capabilities, which in turn would help to improve the accuracy of weather forecasts across the country as well as to produce effective early warnings on natural disasters related to hydrometeorological and geological events.[2]

The initiative addresses substantial economic risks. Over the last 21-year period, total damages from hydrometeorological hazards were GEL 2.8 billion (US$1.2 billion) at a cost of 152 lives, with 22 deaths occurring in the Tbilisi flash flood of 2015.[4] Annual average damages to properties from floods were estimated at 116.3 Million GEL (US$51.2 million) without climate change and at 282.7 Million GEL (US$124.4 Million) with climate change.[4] Georgia's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) estimated economic losses from climate-induced hazards without adaptation measures for the period 2021-2030 to be US$10-12 billion, while the cost of adaptation measures was estimated to be US$1.5-2 billion.[4]

Climate Adaptation Relevance

Georgia faces climate change-related risks including landslides, mudflows, erosion, avalanches, floods, drought, and strong winds that are increasing in frequency, intensity and geographical spread due to climate change.[5] The "Scaling-up multi-hazard early warning system and the use of climate information in Georgia" project will reduce exposure of Georgia's communities, livelihoods and infrastructure to climate-induced natural hazards through a well-functioning nation-wide multi-hazard early warning system and risk-informed local action.[4] The project will achieve transformative change in climate risk reduction and management in Georgia by development of a fully-integrated impact-based multi-hazard early warning system.[4]

Business Analysis

The implementation follows a multi-layered financing model combining international climate finance with bilateral and national government resources. The scaling up was attained by developing and implementing a nation-wide Multi-Hazard Early Warning System, developing and delivering climate information services, and implementing community-based risk reduction measures.[4] The project introduced standardized hazard, risk and vulnerability assessment and mapping methods and technologies, and provided critical climate risk information to enable the implementation of nation-wide risk reduction policies.[4] The project will catalyze a paradigm shift towards climate risk-informed and resilient development.[4] The implementation structure included three primary outputs: expanded hydro-meteorological observation network and modelling capacities to secure reliable information on climate-induced hazards, vulnerability and risks; multi-hazard early warning system and new climate information products supported with effective national regulations, coordination mechanism and institutional capacities; and improved community resilience through the implementation of the multi-hazard early warning system and priority risk reduction measures.[4] The Georgia Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System was operated by the National Environmental Agency of Georgia, with George Kordzakhia serving as Head of Hydrological Forecasting Division as of May 2022.[1]

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