Resilience Scanner

Heat Risk Story Map and Vulnerability Index

Solution Overview

Manchester developed a heat mapping tool to enhance understanding of the city's exposure and vulnerability to heat over time.[5] The tool gives insights into how urban heat risks vary across the city and within communities, identifying areas where high temperatures and heatwaves could have the biggest impact on people's health and wellbeing.[5] This approach emerged from collaborative efforts to address growing concerns about the impact that hotter summers will have on Manchester and its inhabitants.[7]

Technical Components

The Manchester Heat Risk Story Map combines climate information about extreme heat events with socio-economic data to understand future heat risks in UK cities, demonstrated through ArcGIS Storymaps.[2] The system incorporates data from the Manchester City Pack, which provides a non-technical summary of Manchester's future climate and associated impacts using the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP) data.[2] A Heat Vulnerability Index for Greater Manchester was developed using novel indicators and an improved method of index construction, assessing vulnerability at the census unit of Lower Super Output Area across the metropolitan region of Greater Manchester.[4] The technical framework draws on methodologies demonstrated in comparable implementations, such as the Keep Bristol Cool mapping tool, which was developed by experts from the Met Office and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester working with Bristol City Council to map urban heat risk.[5]

Implementation Details

In 2021, work was undertaken by Manchester Climate Change Agency (MCCA) to further understand the city's climate risks and vulnerabilities, resulting in the publication of Manchester's climate risk: a framework for understanding hazards and vulnerability.[7][1] The framework identifies Manchester's weather-related hazards and projects how climate change will affect these hazards, establishing a framework to support the comprehensive assessment of the city's vulnerabilities to climate change.[7] In 2022, Manchester Climate Change Agency worked with the Met Office, Manchester City Council and Manchester Metropolitan University to further understand the impacts of a changing climate on Manchester.[2] This collaboration produced the Manchester Heat Pack working with Manchester City Council, Manchester Climate Change Agency and Manchester Metropolitan University to provide information on how extreme heat events in the city may change this century due to climate change.[3][2]

Benefits and Impacts

The Manchester Heat Pack provides information on how extreme heat events in Manchester may change this century due to climate change, the impacts, and how to build resilience to extreme heat.[2] The tool gives insights into how urban heat risks vary across the city and within communities, identifying the areas where high temperatures and heatwaves could have the biggest impact on people's health and wellbeing.[5] Similar implementations demonstrate the value of this approach, as the Keep Bristol Cool mapping tool demonstrates how current heat vulnerability varies across different neighbourhoods and how climate change may increase temperatures in the future, serving policy makers and practitioners such as urban designers, landscape architects, and emergency planners.[6][5]

Climate Adaptation Relevance

This system directly addresses the growing threat of extreme heat events in Manchester, where droughts, heatwaves and wildfires represent future risks of particular concern for the city and its inhabitants.[7] The framework developed for understanding Manchester's vulnerability to climate change enables comprehensive assessment of the city's capacity to respond to these climate threats.[1][7]

Sources