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Durban is projected to face significant climate hazards, particularly an elevated risk of malaria transmission. With climate change contributing to rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns, the conditions for the proliferation of malaria-carrying mosquitoes are expected to improve. This situation increases the potential for outbreaks and public health crises, especially within vulnerable population groups. The implications of heightened malaria risk encompass not only health concerns but also broader socio-economic challenges, which could hinder development efforts. It is crucial for stakeholders in the region to recognize these risks and prioritize strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on health and well-being. Addressing the vulnerabilities associated with malaria transmission will be vital for safeguarding public health in Durban's future climate scenarios.

Hazard Outlook

How will Durban's projected climate hazards compare to other cities under a 3.0°C future warming scenario?

Heavy Rainfall Days

52nd percentile Elevated exposure

With 10 days of heavy rainfall expected, Durban ranks higher than most cities for extreme precipitation events.

Durban
0.0 Fewer → More 36

Elevation

42nd percentile Elevated exposure

At 59 m elevation, Durban faces elevated risk from coastal flooding and sea level rise.

Durban
-8.0 Lower → Higher 4k

Maximum Rainfall

48th percentile Moderate exposure

Durban's projected maximum rainfall of 11 mm is near the median of cities globally.

Durban
0.0 Lower → Higher 35

Maximum Temperature

24th percentile Lower exposure

Durban's projected maximum temperature of 8.5°C is lower than most cities globally under a 3.0°C warming scenario.

Durban
5.0 Cooler → Hotter 13

Longest Heatwave

1st percentile Lower exposure

Durban may experience heatwaves lasting up to 1 days, lower than most other cities.

Durban
0.0 Shorter → Longer 92

Exposure Summary

Heavy Rain
Elevation
Max Rain
Max Temp
Heatwave

Adaptation Priorities

Durban faces elevated exposure to heavy rain, elevation. These areas may warrant priority attention in adaptation planning.

Data source: Climate projections from the IPCC AR6 scenario analysis. See our methodology for details on how we process and interpret this data.

Deployed Solutions

Deployed climate adaptation technologies identified in Durban.

No solutions have been documented for Durban.

This is an archived snapshot of the database.

Recommended Solutions

Proven solutions from similar cities that could help diversify Durban's resilience portfolio