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Tucson is projected to face increasing challenges related to extreme heat, with rising temperatures leading to more frequent and dangerous heat extremes. This trend poses significant risks to public health, particularly for vulnerable populations. The city will experience heightened demands on energy infrastructure due to increased air conditioning use, which may lead to grid instability during peak periods. Additionally, water resources will come under pressure, exacerbating existing concerns related to drought and water scarcity. Urban planning will need to adapt to mitigate heat impacts, as traditional methods may be insufficient to combat the scale of the problem. These climate hazards highlight the city's vulnerability to worsening conditions, necessitating a proactive approach to understanding and preparing for the implications of extreme heat on daily life in the future.

Hazard Outlook

How will Tucson's projected climate hazards compare to other cities under a 3.0°C future warming scenario?

Maximum Temperature

81st percentile High exposure

Tucson's projected maximum temperature of 11.1°C is among the highest of all cities globally under a 3.0°C warming scenario.

Tucson
5.0 Cooler → Hotter 13

Longest Heatwave

48th percentile Moderate exposure

Tucson may experience heatwaves lasting up to 5 days, near the median of other cities.

Tucson
0.0 Shorter → Longer 92

Heavy Rainfall Days

22nd percentile Lower exposure

With 9 days of heavy rainfall expected, Tucson ranks lower than most cities for extreme precipitation events.

Tucson
0.0 Fewer → More 36

Maximum Rainfall

22nd percentile Lower exposure

Tucson's projected maximum rainfall of 7 mm is lower than most cities globally.

Tucson
0.0 Lower → Higher 35

Elevation

88th percentile Lower exposure

At 746 m elevation, Tucson faces lower risk from coastal flooding and sea level rise.

Tucson
-8.0 Lower → Higher 4k

Exposure Summary

Max Temp
Heatwave
Heavy Rain
Max Rain
Elevation

Adaptation Priorities

Tucson faces high exposure to max temp. These areas may warrant priority attention in adaptation planning.

Data source: Climate projections from the IPCC AR6 scenario analysis. See our methodology for details on how we process and interpret this data.

Deployed Solutions

Deployed climate adaptation technologies identified in Tucson.

No solutions have been documented for Tucson.

This is an archived snapshot of the database.

Recommended Solutions

Proven solutions from similar cities that could help diversify Tucson's resilience portfolio